Brinker Advisor

Share this post

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE)

www.brinkeradvisor.com

Discover more from Brinker Advisor

Our favorite investment ideas along with our views on the economy, monetary policy, and related topics. Subscribers have access to our Brinker Fixed Income Advisor and Marketimer Model Portfolios as well as our List of Recommended No-Load Funds.
Over 10,000 subscribers
Continue reading
Sign in

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE)

April 2023

May 26, 2023
5
Share this post

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE)

www.brinkeradvisor.com
1
Share

Today’s PCE inflation report shows that although the Fed’s preferred inflation measure has fallen from its peak, inflation remains too high for the Fed to declare victory. The important core PCE rate has been moving sideways for six months, with year-over-year readings hovering between 4.6% and 4.8%. That is more than double the Fed’s 2% inflation target. The year-over-year core PCE figure is only slightly higher than the one-month, three-month, and six-month annualized rates of 4.7%, 4.3%, and 4.5%. This indicates future declines in the core PCE rate will be more difficult to attain. The takeaway is this: The Fed has more work to do.

Headline PCE:

+0.4% seasonally adjusted in April, following +0.1% in March

+4.4% year-over-year

+3.1% latest 3 months annualized

+3.5% latest 6 months annualized

Core PCE: (excludes food and energy)

+0.4% seasonally adjusted in April, following +0.3% in March

+4.7% year-over-year

+4.3% latest 3 months annualized

+4.5% latest 6 months annualized


Long-Term Chart of Headline and Core PCE Price Index Year over Year Change:


Summary Tables from BEA.gov PCE report:


Percent change from the same month one year ago:

Source: BEA.gov


Brinker Advisor is a reader-supported publication. To support our work, consider becoming a subscriber.

5
Share this post

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE)

www.brinkeradvisor.com
1
Share
1 Comment
Commenting has been turned off for this post
Share this discussion

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE)

www.brinkeradvisor.com
DH
Writes DH’s Substack
May 26Liked by Bob Brinker

Thanks. This clarifies where the economy is today. DH

Expand full comment
Share
Top
New
Community

No posts

Ready for more?

© 2023 Bob Brinker
Privacy ∙ Terms ∙ Collection notice
Start WritingGet the app
Substack is the home for great writing