Leading Economic Indicators
Leading Economic Indicators
The Leading Economic Index dropped 0.4% in January.
LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS :: JANUARY 2024
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) dropped 0.4% in January, following a 0.2% decline in December. Over the six months from July 2023 to January 2024, the LEI contracted by 3.0%, an improvement from the 4.1% decline in the previous six-month period. This was the twenty-second consecutive month showing a decline in the LEI. Despite these declines, the LEI is no longer forecasting a 2024 recession.
“While the declining LEI continues to signal headwinds to economic activity, for the first time in the past two years, six out of its ten components were positive contributors over the past six-month period (ending in January 2024). As a result, the leading index currently does not signal recession ahead. While no longer forecasting a recession in 2024, we do expect real GDP growth to slow to near zero percent over Q2 and Q3.”
-Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board
Source: The Conference Board
Source: The Conference Board
The Coincident Economic Index® (CEI), which gauges present economic conditions, increased by 0.2% in January, the same increase as December. From July 2023 to January 2024, the CEI rose 1.0%, up from the 0.8% growth observed in the previous six months. Three of the four CEI components rose in January.
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